diff --git a/service/src/main/java/org/whispersystems/textsecuregcm/storage/MessagesManager.java b/service/src/main/java/org/whispersystems/textsecuregcm/storage/MessagesManager.java
index 3dee11d0e..414512290 100644
--- a/service/src/main/java/org/whispersystems/textsecuregcm/storage/MessagesManager.java
+++ b/service/src/main/java/org/whispersystems/textsecuregcm/storage/MessagesManager.java
@@ -22,6 +22,7 @@ import org.reactivestreams.Publisher;
 import org.slf4j.Logger;
 import org.slf4j.LoggerFactory;
 import org.whispersystems.textsecuregcm.entities.MessageProtos.Envelope;
+import org.whispersystems.textsecuregcm.metrics.MetricsUtil;
 import org.whispersystems.textsecuregcm.util.Pair;
 import reactor.core.observability.micrometer.Micrometer;
 import reactor.core.publisher.Flux;
@@ -37,6 +38,9 @@ public class MessagesManager {
   private static final Counter PERSIST_MESSAGE_COUNTER = Metrics.counter(
       name(MessagesManager.class, "persistMessage"));
 
+  private static final String MAY_HAVE_MESSAGES_COUNTER_NAME =
+      MetricsUtil.name(MessagesManager.class, "mayHaveMessages");
+
   private final MessagesDynamoDb messagesDynamoDb;
   private final MessagesCache messagesCache;
   private final ReportMessageManager reportMessageManager;
@@ -65,9 +69,24 @@ public class MessagesManager {
 
   public CompletableFuture<Boolean> mayHaveMessages(final UUID destinationUuid, final Device destinationDevice) {
     return messagesCache.hasMessagesAsync(destinationUuid, destinationDevice.getId())
-        .thenCompose(hasMessages -> hasMessages
-            ? CompletableFuture.completedFuture(true)
-            : messagesDynamoDb.mayHaveMessages(destinationUuid, destinationDevice));
+        .thenCombine(messagesDynamoDb.mayHaveMessages(destinationUuid, destinationDevice),
+            (mayHaveCachedMessages, mayHavePersistedMessages) -> {
+              final String outcome;
+
+              if (mayHaveCachedMessages && mayHavePersistedMessages) {
+                outcome = "both";
+              } else if (mayHaveCachedMessages) {
+                outcome = "cached";
+              } else if (mayHavePersistedMessages) {
+                outcome = "persisted";
+              } else {
+                outcome = "none";
+              }
+
+              Metrics.counter(MAY_HAVE_MESSAGES_COUNTER_NAME, "outcome", outcome).increment();
+
+              return mayHaveCachedMessages || mayHavePersistedMessages;
+            });
   }
 
   public boolean hasCachedMessages(final UUID destinationUuid, final byte destinationDevice) {